Hell for Leather Selling "Free Erik Buell" T-Shirts

[Brad1445]

Harley sold approx 250,000 bikes a year in the early to mid 2000's afaik. How can you say HD's problems have to do with the product and not the recession? The product is superb, and has a timeless iconic design/brand appeal.

*Everybody's* demographic is dying.  

Has anybody here worked with youths? I have in the past. They love HD's. Can't afford them, but love them. I've met young people with HD tattoos and no bike. I see young people with HD tee's and boot's and stickers on their cars, but no bike. I have adult children now, but when they were young, they loved HD. It didn't matter that dad use to tell them about how crappy HD's were, they ignored me utterly, and continued to love the brand/bike. In both my professional and personal experience with young people, I have found that they mostly love HD. I really don't know where the idea comes up that HD doesn't make products that appeal to young people, unless it's a urban legend perpetuated by HD bashers, who think they have the inside track on the reasons for HD's imminent demise.    

I can tell you with all certainty, that if you go and poll young people directly, say from ages 12 to 18, about which bike they'd rather own, ie a HD or a Buell, you'll probably be asked more often than not, "What's a Buell?"

Tru Tru

I never thought about it but your right there is a line of future owners out there.

[Tpoppa]

Harley sold approx 250,000 bikes a year in the early to mid 2000's afaik. How can you say HD's problems have to do with the product and not the recession? The product is superb, and has a timeless iconic design/brand appeal.

*Everybody's* demographic is dying.  

Has anybody here worked with youths? I have in the past. They love HD's. Can't afford them, but love them. I've met young people with HD tattoos and no bike. I see young people with HD tee's and boot's and stickers on their cars, but no bike. I have adult children now, but when they were young, they loved HD. It didn't matter that dad use to tell them about how crappy HD's were, they ignored me utterly, and continued to love the brand/bike. In both my professional and personal experience with young people, I have found that they mostly love HD. I really don't know where the idea comes up that HD doesn't make products that appeal to young people, unless it's a urban legend perpetuated by HD bashers, who think they have the inside track on the reasons for HD's imminent demise.    

I can tell you with all certainty, that if you go and poll young people directly, say from ages 12 to 18, about which bike they'd rather own, ie a HD or a Buell, you'll probably be asked more often than not, "What's a Buell?"

Interesting speculation, but even HD mgmt is aware that they have real concerns with an aging demographic.  Boomers are the group that see HD as an icon, and they are aging.  Why do you think HD is now building factory trikes?  There will always be younger folks that are interested in HD, but those numbers have diminished over the years.  This isn't just opinion.  HD mgmt know this, they have even published this information.

http://investor.harley-davidson.com/demographics.cfm?bmLocale=en_us

Median age increasing by 6 months every year, is ALARMING by industry standards.

I apologize for introducing facts into this discussion.

This is considered common knowledge by industry experts.
http://www.brandchannel.com/features_effect.asp?pf_id=55
"...However, there is no overstating the demographic challenges that the company faces going forward. The average age of a Harley rider is now 45 (ten years ago it was 37), and 20% of Harley riders are over 55. In spite of all the company's success in the past 18 years, Harley has had a difficult time attracting younger consumers, who tend to gravitate to the speedier, more technologically savvy racing bikes produced by Honda and Yamaha.

Underscoring Harley's dearth in the younger demographic is the fact that Honda recently usurped Harley in US sales; Honda is now not only the number one manufacturer globally, but it is currently the king of the prestigious US market largely because of its appeal to younger riders..."

[Tpoppa]

This message is echoed in many acticles by financial and motorcycle industry insiders.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/427624-beacon-asset-managers/13949-demographic-headwinds-hitting-harley-davidson

Specifically, Harley-Davidson has started to hit demographic–or “generational”–headwinds caused by its prime consumer base aging out of the market.  The average age of a Harley buyer is now about 47, an average that has been creeping higher by about six months per year for the past 20 years.  Meanwhile, the number of potential U.S. customers reaching this age has begun to drop, a drop that will accelerate to as much as one million per year by 2019, as the last of the Baby Boomers, and first 10 years of Generation X, reach this age (these figures do not include immigrants as first-generation immigrants do not generally purchase new vehicles).

Harley-Davidson is one of the most recognizable brands in the world, but it’s an iconic Baby Boomer brand, and one that children of Boomers are showing great reluctance to adopt.  And while the company’s executives point to the economy as the reason behind its sales woes, it is obvious that the younger generations are not so enamored with the brand.  Noted motorcycle analyst Donald J. Brown said most of the company’s problems are independent of the economic downturn, and cited the lack of HD’s appeal to younger motorcycle riders as a primary reason behind declining sales.  He added that Generation Y has been a big fan of smaller, 125 cc-size bikes, which has been one of the fastest growing segments of the U.S. motorcycle market since 1999.

[st ryder]

Interesting speculation, but even HD mgmt is aware that they have real concerns with an aging demographic.  Boomers are the group that see HD as an icon, and they are aging.  Why do you think HD is now building factory trikes?  There will always be younger folks that are interested in HD, but those numbers have diminished over the years.  This isn't just opinion.  HD mgmt know this, they have even published this information.

http://investor.harley-davidson.com/demographics.cfm?bmLocale=en_us

Median age increasing by 6 months every year, is ALARMING by industry standards.

I apologize for introducing facts into this discussion.

This is considered common knowledge by industry experts.
http://www.brandchannel.com/features_effect.asp?pf_id=55
"...However, there is no overstating the demographic challenges that the company faces going forward. The average age of a Harley rider is now 45 (ten years ago it was 37), and 20% of Harley riders are over 55. In spite of all the company's success in the past 18 years, Harley has had a difficult time attracting younger consumers, who tend to gravitate to the speedier, more technologically savvy racing bikes produced by Honda and Yamaha.

Underscoring Harley's dearth in the younger demographic is the fact that Honda recently usurped Harley in US sales; Honda is now not only the number one manufacturer globally, but it is currently the king of the prestigious US market largely because of its appeal to younger riders..."

I don't see any definitive fact above, just more statements. Remember, HD didn't end up being the only American motorcycle company to survive due to boomers. This whole boomer thing is a red herring IMO. Sure, they bought a lot of HD's, but they bought a lot of other bikes too, so everybody's customer base is declining, not just HD's. Wille G said it best a number of years ago when asked about the challenge of metric crusiers, ie "They get 'em ready for a HD." If you want to discount my experience with youths as nonfactual, I'd suggest going to any high school right now, and stand in fron of any class, and ask them, "What's your favorite motorcycle?" and you'll hear how many prefer HD. But, like I mentioned in an earlier post, most young folks can't afford to buy HD, it's not that they don't want HD, and once ensnared in the bang for buck, "my bike's faster than yours" mind set, it takes them a while to appreciate what HD has to offer, but many young people do buy them if they have the money. Of my daughters friends who have bikes for the past 5 years, none of them have a Japanese sport bike, they all have HD's. She turned 28 this year.

Oh, and as I mentioned, no discussion of the future of any motorcycle segment can be complete without including women, or the "cross over" buyer who seeks to "move up" from rice burners.  

Harley hating peeps have lined up wringing their hands together in delight, predicting the collapse of HD for decades now. Sorry to disappoint, but it isn't going to happen anytime soon. There will be a contraction, that's certain. But, that's about the economy, not the product.  

[Tpoppa]

It's hard for repeatable, factual market research to compete with a trip to the local high school  

While your at that high school, take a quick look around the parking lot.  How many Harleys do you see?  Teens don't equal dollars.  When those teens reach buying age those dollars become real.  And that has been where HD has struggled.  Again, not opinion.  These are verifiable facts.

[Schneegz]

Harley hating peeps have lined up wringing their hands together in delight, predicting the collapse of HD for decades now. Sorry to disappoint, but it isn't going to happen anytime soon. There will be a contraction, that's certain. But, that's about the economy, not the product.  

You keep bringing up this red herring, but nobody here is predicting Harley's demise, only a continued contraction as their customers age and essentially are not replaced by younger buyers.  

The average age of Harley owners is increasing steadily; that's a fact.  It's already at 45 and climbing.  That's a fact.  Yes, the average age of motorcyclists in general is also increasing.  That is also a fact.  The difference is that the average age of other motorcycle manufacturers' customers is lower than Harley's, which means they're in a better position to attract younger buyers.  A major reason they're able to do that is that they have a diverse range of motorcycles.  Harley doesn't, and probably never will.

[st ryder]

It's hard for repeatable, factual market research to compete with a trip to the local high school  

While your at that high school, take a quick look around the parking lot.  How many Harleys do you see?  Teens don't equal dollars.  When those teens reach buying age those dollars become real.  And that has been where HD has struggled.  Again, not opinion.  These are verifiable facts.

I think the issue being discussed here was that Harleys doesn't attract younger buyers because of the product. I disagree with that. I state it's beacuse of the costs/price, and that one only needs to speak with young people to hear that they are attracted to the HD product. Harleys cost a lot of money, otherwise young people would but them in greater numbers IMO. I also go on to say that these young people who are attracted to the HD product, will aspire to own one, just as boomers did. HD will keep it's market share of a smaller market.

Oh, and teens equal huge amounts of dollars, or don't you watch TV?

[st ryder]

You keep bringing up this red herring, but nobody here is predicting Harley's demise, only a continued contraction as their customers age and essentially are not replaced by younger buyers.  

The average age of Harley owners is increasing steadily; that's a fact.  It's already at 45 and climbing.  That's a fact.  Yes, the average age of motorcyclists in general is also increasing.  That is also a fact.  The difference is that the average age of other motorcycle manufacturers' customers is lower than Harley's, which means they're in a better position to attract younger buyers.  A major reason they're able to do that is that they have a diverse range of motorcycles.  Harley doesn't, and probably never will.

Harley has a very wide range of models. They are all premium priced, American V-twin crusiers. Some with a performance slant, others with a touring slant, and others with a custom slant. No dirt bikes, no sport bikes. Those young kids who buy rice burning dirt bikes and sport bikes and cruiser bikes will need to graduate to "nicer" bikes at some point. It's human nature IMO. Look at all the boomers who bought Japanese bikes in the 70's, who then "crossed over" to HD later on especially with the booming economy. I personally knew of a few that even though they had decent metric cruisers, eventally bought HD nonetheless. If cross over buying has been going on for decades with boomers, why will that change for non-boomers? (I mean my first ride on a motorcycle as a pillion was on a Suzuki, as a rider on a Yamaha) HD is an aspirational product for "people who ride bikes." Not all of them, but if they're into motorcycling in a big way, HD will be on the list.  

Take the focus off attracting youth buyers, and widen it a bit to include women and cross over buyers and you'll see HD's future is as secure as the next guy's. They will keep their market share of a smaller pie. The red herring I'm talking about is the thought that other brands will steal HD's future clients. No, they just get them ready for HD like Willie G. said.  

[Tpoppa]

The Greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge. --Stephen Hawking

[Baz]

I think the issue being discussed here was that Harleys doesn't attract younger buyers because of the product. I disagree with that. I state it's beacuse of the costs/price, and that one only needs to speak with young people to hear that they are attracted to the HD product. Harleys cost a lot of money, otherwise young people would but them in greater numbers IMO. I also go on to say that these young people who are attracted to the HD product, will aspire to own one, just as boomers did. HD will keep it's market share of a smaller market.

Oh, and teens equal huge amounts of dollars, or don't you watch TV?

I can't speak for all demographic areas but can tell you that at our local bike nights, there is very little interest in HD in the under 30 crowd. It is virtually non existant in the under 20 crowd.  

In fact I overhear more pirate jokes about old posers on their geiser machines from the under 30 crowd at bike night, than I do on STN.

And that is amazing!  

[Schneegz]

Harley has a very wide range of models.

In what alternative universe?  

[Brad1445]

The Greatest enemy of knowledge is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge. --Stephen Hawking

Yet you bought a new Buell??????????????????????????????????

[Brad1445]

Harley will survive and will be here long after any of us posting here have passed away.