"What the heck gives?"

[xbud]

Brad,

Talking about things is indeed good BUT the conversation in the form it has taken here has run its course and I say that with all due respect and as someone who valued your input before and after the closure of Buell.

Jesse

And that is coming from a rather reserved person when it comes to making public statements.

[Kootenanny]

The money Motoczysz makes from developing power trains will go into their motorcycle business.

Which is now an electric motorcycle business, AFAIK.  And the point here is--he's not making money by selling motorcycles, if he has to fund the motorcycle production with something else.  Buell was in the same boat--not making enough money to keep the business afloat with motorcycle production only, so he "sold out" to a major motorcycle manufacturer, who basically paid him to develop and produce motorcycles...

Electric motorcycle manufacturers are competing with all other motorcycle manufacturers.  They're still building motorcycles.  Anyone considering buying an electric bike will compare it to gas powered bikes of similar price and decide for themselves whether or not the electric bike offers anything to make up for their diminished capabilities.  Either way, electric bikes do compete with gas powered bikes, just like hybrid cars compete with gas powered cars and electric cars.

I disagree completely.  The market may be somewhat related, but an electric bike does not compete directly against gasoline powered bikes--if they did, they would never sell a one of them.  People who are interested in electric bikes are looking at them because they're interested in alternative powered vehicles (just like hybrid cars--they sell because of their fuel efficiency, not because of their performance; outside of the major urban centers, they are not common, because their benefits are mostly geared towards congested urban traffic).  That's not to say that some current motorcycle riders aren't interested in alternative vehicles (I am), but read any thread about electric bikes on this forum, and you'll see how many people talk about how they'd never buy electric.

Once the technology gets to the point that electric bikes actually can compete in the regular motorcycle marketplace, then things will change--for one thing, I doubt you'll see many small builders like Brammo or Zero et al involved anymore (actually, it'll probably be technology developed by a small company like Brammo or Zero but produced by a major manufacturer like Honda or Yamaha that is leading the marketplace--these bigger companies will buy up the technology as soon as they think it'll be profitable to go into production).  

You're not going to find a perfect parallel to Buell or any other company.  Each company finds its own route to success or failure.  But they all have to start somewhere, and that usually means very small beginnings.

This is true.  But one of the things that can make or break a company is the marketplace they're going into.  The motorcycle marketplace over the past few decades has been dominated by a small number of large manufacturers, much as the auto market has been, and this makes it a hard market to break into.  A small company usually cannot offer production efficiencies leading to lower costs; they must offer something else to make up for their higher costs.  Or, they can go into a completely new market, such as the electric bikes (and personally, I think Czysz and the others going there are doing the right thing--whoever can develop technology to actually rival internal combustion engines is going to make it big!)

[steve.m]

; outside of the major urban centers, they are not common, because their benefits are mostly geared towards congested urban traffic).  

haha, on that note....

i had a rental camry hybrid in CO this past winter.  Took it from denver airport to breckenridge.  got about 20 mpg.  that little 4 banger was ready to explode by the time we made it through all the passes.  poor thing was never meant to carry 3 200+ dudes, their gear and a battery pack.

[Schneegz]

I disagree completely.  

And you're wrong.  Just because one product does not compete very well with a similar product, that doesn't mean they don't compete at all.  They are competing.  They simply appeal to their customers in a different way than ICE motorcycles.  Again, that doesn't mean they're not competing, only that they're doing it differently.

The only way you could accurately claim that electric motorcycles don't compete with ICE motorcycles is if there was no overlap between electric motorcycle customers and ICE motorcycle customers.  But there clearly is.  In fact, almost all electric motorcycle customers are past or current ICE motorcycle customers.  In other words, each of them bought an electric motorcycle instead of buying yet another ICE motorcycle.  Even if the electric bike is a second bike used only for commuting to save gas money, that still means they didn't buy a small ICE commuter bike they could have bought for the same purpose.  Sure the electric bike is probably more expensive, but that doesn't matter, because the customer thinks it's worth the cost.

That is the essence of competition, and customers' reasons for choosing an electric motorcycle over an ICE bike don't change that fact.

[Kootenanny]

And you're wrong.

Bull pucky.  The "overlap" you're speaking of is very small...sure, a guy might buy an electric bike rather than a small (say, 125cc) commuter bike, but I'll bet the average buyer of an electric bike isn't buying the electric bike "instead of" another bike, he's buying it simply because it's an electric vehicle--he'll commute on it rather than his FJR, just to save gas, but if he hadn't bought it, he'd just continue to ride the FJR (if a guys gets on a fitness kick and decides to buy a bicycle to commute on, is the bicycle competing in the overall motorcycle market?).  The reason most electric bike buyers are already motorcyclists is because a motorcyclist already has the interest, skills, and licensing to ride a 2-wheeled vehicle.  

I agree there is some overlap, so electric bikes may take a (very) few sales away from the ICE motorcycle market, but overall it is a different market (just as in my example above, bicycles may take a few sales away from the motorcycle market, but that doesn't mean they're considered valid competition in that market).  I would like to see electric bikes become MORE of a player in the ICE bike market, but until technology improves (and it will!), I don't see them becoming much of a threat.

[Schneegz]

Bull pucky.  The "overlap" you're speaking of is very small...sure, a guy might buy an electric bike rather than a small (say, 125cc) commuter bike, but I'll bet the average buyer of an electric bike isn't buying the electric bike "instead of" another bike, he's buying it simply because it's an electric vehicle--he'll commute on it rather than his FJR, just to save gas, but if he hadn't bought it, he'd just continue to ride the FJR (if a guys gets on a fitness kick and decides to buy a bicycle to commute on, is the bicycle competing in the overall motorcycle market?).  The reason most electric bike buyers are already motorcyclists is because a motorcyclist already has the interest, skills, and licensing to ride a 2-wheeled vehicle.  

In most places around the world bicycles are big competition for motorcycles.  As for electric bikes, the overlap is small because the sales of electric bikes are small for now.  If you want evidence of people buying electric bikes instead of ICE bikes, check out the Brammo Owner's Forum.

I agree there is some overlap, so electric bikes may take a (very) few sales away from the ICE motorcycle market, but overall it is a different market (just as in my example above, bicycles may take a few sales away from the motorcycle market, but that doesn't mean they're considered valid competition in that market).  I would like to see electric bikes become MORE of a player in the ICE bike market, but until technology improves (and it will!), I don't see them becoming much of a threat.

I never wrote the word threat.  I wrote competition.  Big Dog is in competition with Harley, even though they pose no threat whatsoever to Harley.  The fact that electric bikes take some sales away from ICE bikes (as you admit) proves that they are in competition, even though they are not yet a threat.

Every new technology competes with the technology it's intended to replace.

The first cars competed with horses and buggies, even though horses and buggies are far more different from cars than electric bikes are from ICE bikes.  Horses and buggies were far more capable, practical and reliable than car for years.  That doesn't matter.  They still competed.

Simultaneously, gasoline-powered cars competed against steam-powered cars, compressed-natural-gas-powered cars and electric cars.  

Computers competed against typewriters and stand-alone word processors.

iPods competed against portable CD players.

Electric lawn mowers (both plug-in and cordless) continue to compete with ICE lawn mowers.  

Likewise, electric bikes are competing with ICE bikes.  The fact that they are not yet a threat does not change the fact that they are competing.