Harley-Davidson's aging biker problem

[xsrider]

Found this on CNN.com here > http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/17/autos/harley_davidson_fall.fortune/index.htm?eref=mrss_igoogle_business

Nothing new, we've heard it before.  Harley buyers are getting old and younger riders aren't buying Harleys.  

FORTUNE -- Harley-Davidson was the feel-good turnaround story of the 1990s and then the poster-boy for brand values in the 2000s. How often did you read that Harley was the only consumer brand whose customers were so loyal they wore the company's logo tattooed on their chest?

But after expanding exuberantly in the last decade, Harley has fallen on hard times. Now it is struggling against a foe that not even cost-cutting nor brand loyalty can overcome: demographics. Its current owners are getting old, and not enough younger ones are coming up behind them.

Harley's core customer is a middle-aged white American male, a group that will contract in the coming decade. As one blogger wrote, "The 60-70-year old riders have trouble lifting a leg over the seat because of arthritis. And finger joints hurt with the cold air and engine vibration." Women represent just 11% of Harley buyers, and penetration in the African-American and Hispanic markets is similarly limited.

Harley's need to readjust its aspirations was driven home this week by the news that the company had forced its Wisconsin labor unions to accept wage and benefit concessions by threatening to move its factories out of the state. New contracts will allow the company to cut 325 employees and convert 150 to 250 other workers to temporary or "casual" status, meaning they have fewer benefits and will work on an "as-needed basis.

The cutbacks come as Harley (HOG, Fortune 500) scales back in the face of a sharply shrinking market. As recently as 2008, Harley built 303,000 motorcycles, nearly double the 159,000 it assembled in 2000. This year it expects to make between 201,000 and 210,000 bikes. Since new CEO Keith Wandell arrived on the scene in May, 2009, Harley has consolidated operations, terminated its Buell line of sport bikes, and sold its MV Agusta Italian motorcycles back to its founder.

Bumpy roads are nothing new for Harley. The first Harley-Davidson was built in Milwaukee -- still the company's headquarters -- in 1903 by William S. Harley and the three Davidson brothers. Their popularity took off during World War One, when 20,000 Harleys were used by the U.S. infantry. With the shutdown of Indian in 1953, Harley became the only American motorcycle manufacturer. Marlon Brando's 1954 movie The Wild One helped solidify Harley's image of hairy-chested rebellion, an identification it alternately embraces and spurns.

By 1969, Harley enjoyed an 80% share of the market for big bikes. But ten years later, incursions by Japanese manufacturers, led by Honda, squeezed its share to 20%. Fighting back at what it perceived as unfair competition, the company won an anti-dumping ruling from the International Trade Commission in 1982, and President Reagan imposed a 45% additional tariff on super heavyweight Japanese bikes.

Given an opening, Harley used the opportunity provided by the tariffs to regroup. It paid more attention to the appearance of its bikes, started to focus on quality, and beefed up its marketing. From 1988 to 1995, annual shipments doubled. In fact, demand grew faster than manufacturing capacity could keep up. Harleys became a cult item; Harley dealers packed extra charges onto list prices and compiled waiting lists for prospective customers. By the late 1990s, certain models were back-ordered for two years.

After resisting the temptation to expand, Harley belatedly added production capacity and grandiosely predicted sales would reach 400,000 by 2007. But lacking scarcity, Harleys also began to lose their cachet. Sales peaked in 2006 at 349,000. Nobody bought Harleys for transportation, and at up to $20,000 for a fully-rigged cruiser, they had become a highly-deferrable luxury purchase, especially in a recession.

Nor did Harley's famous brand strength buffer it when its bikes were no longer in short supply and demand hit a wall. The combination of a faltering economy and an aging customer base at the end of the decade had significantly dented sales -- perhaps permanently.

There is a lesson here for companies that become the flavor of the moment -- and then use that as a base from which to make forecasts for the future. Harley's famous brand couldn't buffer it from the downturn once owning a Harley stopped being cool. Tattoos didn't move motorcycles.

As analyst Craig Kennison of Robert W. Baird points out, Harley survived earlier economic downturns when other discretionary consumer durables slumped because Harleys were in short supply. As it built capacity to meet demand, Harley became just another manufacturer, vulnerable to a cyclical economy. In the fourth quarter of 2009, it suffered its first quarterly loss in 16 years.

The days when Harleys were a fashion accessory are likely over. Except perhaps for Indiana governor and presidential aspirant Mitch Daniels, it is no longer big news when a celebrity is seen riding a Fat Boy or Ultra Limited. The challenge for Harley-Davidson in 2010 is to adjust to the new normal.

[Galo]

But....but.....but!

the same thing -the same demographic changes- are impacting every other manufacturer...cars included. What have others done? Expanded their offerings to cover the changing demographics and fads. Dual Sports? Check  Triumph, Suzuki, Ducati, etc. Motards? Yamaha, KTM, etc. More capable sport-cruisers? Yamaha, Triumph, Honda, etc etc.

On the cage side, Ford has done a masterful job of covering the demographics on all sides, from the gentlemanly Taurii on one end down to the super-kewl, world-class Fiesta and upcoming Focii. Hell, even GM ditched Olds and Pontiac as they realized the demographics played against these brands.  Harley on the other hand, continues to plod along with their blinders on, refusing to see the light of day.
 

Bottom line: the problem is not the demographics, it's their miopic, one-track vision of what a bike should be and such a complete lack of innovation that they call a 1200 Sportster with Showa forks and a new paint scheme a 'new' bike.
 

[atadaskew]

If everyone bought Guzzis we wouldn't be having this discussion.

[motormike]

Harley needs to diversify into elderly mobility scooter thingies like the Lark or whatever they're called.

* spelling edit *

[Jmac_bandit]

yet another harley specific thread allowed to languish in general moto discussion  

[atadaskew]

yet another harley specific thread allowed to languish in general moto discussion  

Ok, I'll help out....

Just got the latest issue of SportRider.  They test the Honda VFR1200 with DCT box.
What was interesting is it's perf numbers.
1/4 mile in 11.7 secs.

The Harley XR1200, is 12.7.  A slug? Maybe.  Butt it's 'only' 1 second slower in the 1/4 mile.  Think about watching that from the sidelines.  Honda crosses first, then the Harley.  yes, the difference is as long as it took you to read the sentence.
The Honda costs $5K more.

An unusual comparison to be sure.  But it's interesting that the only bike the VFR12 DCT is quicker than in the ST market is the Honda St1300...

A couple o grand in the XR12 will make it quicker than the VFR12 in the 1/4, and still be about $3K less.

As for the topic of this thread, I have a feeling it's been discussed before.

[falconati]

Many of my peers want Harleys, they just can't afford them.

I would say that the Harley brand is actually very appealing to youth; however they haven't been able to create bikes that young riders want to buy (they can't afford a Fat Boy, but they don't want to buy the Sportster because it's "a girl bike")

[stevent]

Way back in the ancient 80's when I was in my 20's I was riding Harleys as were most of my friends, that's because used ones were cheap and few people wanted them. Everyone wanted Japanese bikes and you could buy a brand new one for around $3000. It's only after the big Harley fad hit that prices went through the roof, that's what screwed them. All of a sudden only people in their high wage earning years could afford them. Now that demographic is getting up there in years and the prices are still too high for a lot of young people to afford them, that's changing daily though as prices are dropping out the bottom of the used bike market as people realize they're not going to get $15,000 for a 10 year old bike.

[weidauer]

I haven't posted on this board in months, but it's good to know that nothing's changed here at good old  H-B.N (Harley-Bashers.Net): those who don't ride Harleys spend an inordinate amount of time and bandwidth talking about them.

If I hated a marque as much as these folks claim to hate Harley, I wouldn't spend all my time reading and posting articles, and discussing same, ad nauseum.

If you don't like H-D, and don't ride one, WTF do you care what they do?

[BrookR1]

Why do they need to target young people again? Until the recession hit, they were doing just fine. What's wrong with just continually targeting the over 40 crowd? Young people aren't going to solve HD financial problems because they're just as broke as the rest of us.

[azharrison]

Why do they need to target young people again? Until the recession hit, they were doing just fine. What's wrong with just continually targeting the over 40 crowd? Young people aren't going to solve HD financial problems because they're just as broke as the rest of us.

Harley is now facing the same dilemma that Cadillac faced in the 80's.  Their target market were getting older and on their way out, but the next generation buyers were just not into their "Dad's car"anymore. So many looked to other luxury brands like Acrua, Lexus, BMW, Mercedes etc.  Caddy reinvented itself with much cooler cars and reclaimed some of their marketshare.  I don't think H-D will be able to change its stripes so easily.  They need to make a couple of affordable bikes with at least a little performance.  They have made only one engine in 60 years!  I can't include the V-rod  powerplant because they outsourced it. 

I think the question is, Can H-D develop an entirely new engine (smaller, better, cheaper), that can power a new generation of machines?

[JGreb]

I haven't posted on this board in months, but it's good to know that nothing's changed here at good old  H-B.N (Harley-Bashers.Net): those who don't ride Harleys spend an inordinate amount of time and bandwidth talking about them.

If I hated a marque as much as these folks claim to hate Harley, I wouldn't spend all my time reading and posting articles, and discussing same, ad nauseum.

If you don't like H-D, and don't ride one, WTF do you care what they do?

I think what you need to realize weidauer is deep down everyone on here wants an American motorcycle company that can build the kind of motorcycle we like. Something fast and light and dependable. Something that can compete with the Japanese big 4. I don't want them to ditch what they do best. They build an awesome cruising machine and I like them.

The act of dumping Buell  can be viewed as a big step backward if they want to sell bikes to the younger generations that are now riding 150 HP sportbikes. 20 years from now do you think they'll be satisfied with an air cooled twin cam 125 or whatever they come up with? They need to diversify their motorcycles and customer base to survive and they sank the one man that could do that, Erik Buell.

The other thing that keeps people talking is how they openly embrace the loud pipes save lives weekend warrior pirate poser image to sell their bikes.


Remember this guy? the VR 1000. Harley was on the track trying to improve their product through racing development and compete. I don't think people wanted to see them give up so easily.

[David Morrow]

I haven't posted on this board in months, but it's good to know that nothing's changed here at good old  H-B.N (Harley-Bashers.Net): those who don't ride Harleys spend an inordinate amount of time and bandwidth talking about them.

If I hated a marque as much as these folks claim to hate Harley, I wouldn't spend all my time reading and posting articles, and discussing same, ad nauseum.

If you don't like H-D, and don't ride one, WTF do you care what they do?

I've met very few people who hate Harley's including people around here. What most people do hate though is the smug HD owners with attitudes of superiority. The "why don't you buy a real bike" kind of attitude. If their bikes really were better, faster, or less expensive, they may have something to brag about but they have none of that. HD made decent bikes and were masterful at marketing. And just as the demographics are changing, what do they do ? They shut down Buell - their best entry into the younger rider market. With that, I think they turned down a one way road that is going to be hard to find an exit from.

[Orson]

I'm of a mind that it's a motorcycling problem and not a Harley problem.

When I wuz a kid in the 70s, we we're in the midst of a motocross boom. Bikes were cool and it seemed everyone wanted one.

Now I wonder if motorcycling may lack the grasp on today's youth like it had on my era.

look at ST.N...save but a few, we're mostly old farts  

[atadaskew]

I'm of a mind that it's a motorcycling problem and not a Harley problem.

When I wuz a kid in the 70s, we we're in the midst of a motocross boom. Bikes were cool and it seemed everyone wanted one.

Now I wonder if motorcycling may lack the grasp on today's youth like it had on my era.

look at ST.N...save but a few, we're mostly old farts  

It's the same problem for scooter sales. Bikes like the Zuma 125 are aimed at kids, but being bought by older people.
The reality is nowadays kids have far more stuff to be distracted with, that takes away any $ they may have used towards a bike.
They all have to have an I Phone.  The monthly cost for one of those is a bike payment...

[greidel]

When I got into bikes, I had a 50cc scooter and wanted something more powerful. I didn't know what kind of bike I wanted. I thought I wanted a cruiser, beacause there are so many on the road (most of them Harleys) they must be the ultimate bike, right? Well, a look at Harley prices quickly eliminated them as an option. I got a Suzuki S40 for $3000 as a starter bike. What did that teach me? The feet-forward cruiser style not give me the feeling I had riding a ten-speed as a kid. A small gas tank isn't for distance. And the Japanese make a hell of bike, for a fraction of the price of a Harley. 5 months later, my next bike would be a Kawasaki Versys, which I still own and love.

Why complain about Harley? Because I'd like to buy an American product. I'm patriotic. But I don't want what Harley is selling right now. I might even forgive that, compromise a little and buy one, but their American labor-union prices are a league above the rest of the market. And what's even more American than a Harley is not spending your hard-earned money on one thing when somebody else sells something just as good at half the price.

My income is going up, and Harley is slowly changing their lineup. We may meet in the middle in a few years, and Harley may make a a bike I want that I can afford. If they put a 5 gallon tank on a XR1200, it might be sooner. But in the meanwhile, I have to hear the "loud pipes" bullshit, "screw it, let's ride" and "when are you going to get a real bike?". Their arrogant attitude is really hard to ignore and get over. Especially since I know that it's fake: if I bought a Harley tomorrow, I'd be welcomed into the fold like brother. Fake.

And they remind me of the Goth kids in high school... let's show how independant and individual we are by all dressing exactly alike and collectively acting and thinking the same. Yawn.

[county]

Well, when a motorcycle is heavy, slow and won't handle worth a shit and costs a lot of money it is incumbent on me as a motorcyclist to say that it sucks, even if it is real shiny.

[weidauer]

Well, when a motorcycle is heavy, slow and won't handle worth a shit and costs a lot of money it is incumbent on me as a motorcyclist to say that it sucks, even if it is real shiny.

And I think Beemers are quirky, elitist and over-engineered. Not to mention they sound like sewing machines.We all have our opinions. And BMW riders can be every bit as annoyingly smug as HD riders.  

The difference is that I don't spend my day surfing the net looking for articles about BMW to prove my point. Just sayin'.  

[county]

And I think Beemers are quirky, elitist and over-engineered. Not to mention they sound like sewing machines.We all have our opinions. And BMW riders can be every bit as annoyingly smug as HD riders.  

The difference is that I don't spend my day surfing the net looking for articles about BMW to prove my point. Just sayin'.  

Well, actually, what you posted about BMW's is mostly opinion while what I posted about Harley's is fact.

[sagerat]

If I read one more article in the BMW ON (owners' news) magazine about how BMW needs to attract younger riders, I'll puke.  BMW, H-D, Moto Guzzi, hell, even Ural has the same handwringing about where have all the new younger customers gone?  

[chornbe]

Why do they need to target young people again? Until the recession hit, they were doing just fine. What's wrong with just continually targeting the over 40 crowd? Young people aren't going to solve HD financial problems because they're just as broke as the rest of us.

Holy. Shit.

This is quite possibly the only sane posting I've read on this poor abused topic (across all 2882 threads on it).  

[clempot911]

They screwed themselves over when they axed Buell. They finally got a bike/engine that competes with the best of them so rather than ride that train what do they do? Derail it.

Marketing and product planning should be fired for not realizing that a majority of their customer base is the older generation and they need to start attracting some new blood into the showrooms. And the days of selling $20,000 HOGs is probably over. Just like in cars, you think they are in trouble now, just wait until the Chinese start selling here.

But then again, what do they care, we will bail them out like the rest.

[DrD]

Brando was on a Triumph.  

[chornbe]

The people who buy Harleys won't buy the chinese crap.

[Bogie]

The people who buy Harleys won't buy the chinese crap.

The same thing people said about japanese crap in the 80's  

[clempot911]

The people who buy Harleys won't buy the chinese crap.

Yup, probably not.

Just like they aren't sitting on their couch watching the game right now in front of that Chinese crap big screen TV.
Or recording it on their Chinese crap DVR.
Or making nachos for the gang on their Chinese crap microwave.
While talking to someone on their Chinese crap cell phone.

Don't get me wrong, I wish this wasn't so, but that's the way I see it.

[chornbe]

Fine, I'll amend my statement; the people who buy Harleys won't buy "chinese crap" motorcycles. Think other wise?

There's absolutely NO shortage of bikes just as good, less expensive and with some very popular names building them. And yet...

It's also silly to think that anything China dumps on these shores is going to be worth a damn, quality wise, for at least 2 decades. It's naive to think that all the MFGs - including Harley - won't wait, watch and adjust (if necessary) if that ever happens. We'll see...

Frankly, I don't care. I don't have a dog in this fight. I just think it's humorous that so many people who don't have, won't have and don't like Harleys have all the answers that Harley should pay attention to.

Look at it this way... You, and you... yes, and you... you don't have nor have ever had a Harley. Right? Ok...

Why not?

The two biggest answers to that question are: 1) they don't build anything that interests me, and 2) the price.

If Harley were to suddenly change gears and build a kick ass FJR/C14/ST1300 killer tomorrow, do you honestly think they would - or could - build it at say, $12K? $14K? $16K?

No, no and no.

Harley is no more reduced than EVERY other player in the field. The Japanese have nothing to fear from Harley. In fact, Japan only dabbles in the market that Harley owns. Now then... Triumph, that's the company every other MFG should be worried about.

[atadaskew]

Well, when a motorcycle is heavy, slow and won't handle worth a shit and costs a lot of money it is incumbent on me as a motorcyclist to say that it sucks, even if it is real shiny.

FJRs don't look THAT shiny to me.

[Hardware]

The T-shirt & bandana company builds motorcycles?  Who knew?

[atadaskew]

The T-shirt & bandana company builds motorcycles?  Who knew?

When did Abercrombie & Fitch start building bikes?
 

[Baz]

Mark my words, sometime soon, you will see a made in China Harley Davidson. They are eyeing that market, and will get nowhere unless they start building there.

I should also add that I recently worked for a German company that was a global entity, and our plant in China had the best quality record & lowest production costs. The quality of products, and Chinese workers is just fine as long as you have full control of your factory, and are not sub contracting things out.

Most of the bad things you see out of China are usually coming out of a sweat shop factory, which someone here is just contracting things out.

PS: Factory workers wages in our plant in China compared to the US when all benefits were included was that they could hire 38 Chinese workers for the cost of one North American worker.  It was even higher when they calculated the costs of a European worker. My old Engineer is running their Chinese plant now, and supposedly the contract they gave him almost equals 1/2 the entire plants labour costs. His wage would be considered average in Canada or the US.

I remember hearing a stock analyst say that the majority of Harley owners next ride will be a walker.   They are truly in a age demographic trap.

[chornbe]

I remember hearing a stock analyst say that the majority of Harley owners next ride will be a walker.   They are truly in a age demographic trap.

I fail to understand that.

They are a premium-priced product, can we at least agree on that? Like, for instance, Mercedes, Cartier and Armani. Ok?

How many 20-somethings can afford - can truly, realistically afford - to live with premium-priced products?

Harley's over-40 demographic exists because we are the ones *typically* financially set enough to afford premium-priced products.

How many 20-somethings own a home? Or at least something other than a "starter" home?
How many 20-somethings drive top-tier cars?
How many 20-somethings ride $25k goldwings, $20K+ BMWs, $20k Ducatis,

Look around at the wealthy, or even the "doing pretty well" group... they're not the 20-somethings, typically. They people in my age group who have careers, have learned a few things - usually the hard way - and have worked their asses off to get to a certain level...

Harley's over-40 demographic is only in danger when we run out of 20-somethings who will grow up to be "set" 40- and 50-somethings... given the products and lifestyle that Harley currently builds and markets to its target demographic.

[greidel]

They are a premium-priced product, can we at least agree on that? Like, for instance, Mercedes, Cartier and Armani. Ok?

This may be true, but it sure is an odd comparison. Owners of Mercedes, Cartier and Armani do not deliberately dress like dirtbags to use their premium products. Do Mercedes dealers devote equal floor space to their cars and branded clothing? I have never been asked by a Mercedes owner "When are you going to buy a REAL car?" I don't think Harley is marketing their product as a luxury brand with "Screw it, let's ride".

Maybe a better comparison would be Escalades, Cristal, and gold chains... items of conspicuous consumption for a class of people who can't generally afford premium-priced products.

The reason that people are interested in seeing HD market to a younger demographic is the same reason that people often cite for HD's optimistic future despite poor economic performance: brand loyalty.  Brand loyalty is what HD has going for it in spades. But what happens if the next generation doesn't adopt that brand loyalty? Younger buyers have less brand loyalty and are more comfortable with a global econemy. They will be just as happy with a Honda if it gives them better value. That is what HD investors are worried about: that their brand loyalists are going to start dying off, not that people won't able to afford luxury products. By any measure, a BMW K1200 or a Honda Goldwing is a more luxurious product.

[stevent]

Mark my words, sometime soon, you will see a made in China Harley Davidson. They are eyeing that market, and will get nowhere unless they start building there.

I doubt they're that foolish. There's an awful lot of people who simply would not buy Harley made in China myself included. I've had good luck with BMW and Triumph in the past and I would love to own a Moto Guzzi Norge. I'd simply keep my '08 FLHT and go back to European bikes.

[weidauer]

Frankly, I don't care. I don't have a dog in this fight. I just think it's humorous that so many people who don't have, won't have and don't like Harleys have all the answers that Harley should pay attention to.

Q.E.D.

[chornbe]

This may be true, but it sure is an odd comparison. Owners of Mercedes, Cartier and Armani do not deliberately dress like dirtbags to use their premium products. Do Mercedes dealers devote equal floor space to their cars and branded clothing? I have never been asked by a Mercedes owner "When are you going to buy a REAL car?" I don't think Harley is marketing their product as a luxury brand with "Screw it, let's ride".

Maybe a better comparison would be Escalades, Cristal, and gold chains... items of conspicuous consumption for a class of people who can't generally afford premium-priced products.

Not always. In fact, not in most cases. You're generalizing.

Sure, I've seen some people living in run-down rabbit hutches with the prettiest, shiniest Harleys in the driveway, but that's really the exception. Most owners are middle-class and blue collar folks who have saved, worked and earned and are rewarding themselves. Even if they're up to their eyes in debt, it's not like they're living on scraps for the sole purpose of affording a Harley.

That's been my experience... according to what I see as a (former) Harley owner who gave a real try to understand the culture more than I previously did.

Is it nothing but "butt jewelry"; a status symbol more than an appreciated product? Yes, to many. But so it s a swimming pool or a BMW 5-series or a SubZero fridge. They happen to be good products - just like a Harley is - but there are better "values" to be had. But they made the choice for their own reasons.

Sorry, but the idea of a Chinese-built Harley is ludicrous for more reasons than I can count. At least in terms of the world stage. Would they build them there to sell them there? Sure, that's possible. But there's no way under the blue sky that Harley would MOVE production to China (and expect to succeed/survive).

The notion is laughable.

[sagerat]

One aspect of H-D's and their demographic I haven't seen discussed.  I agree due to the cost of a new H-D, you pretty much lose the 20-somethings and 30-somethings almost straight off, unless you can get them on a Sportster.  However, I don't see many 20-somethings and 30-somethings buying used H-D's, either.  (As I've typed elsewhere, BMW has pretty much the same problem, compounded by a sparse dealer network.)

Seems like a cruiser is more attractive to those 40 and older for the most part.

[chornbe]

Seems like a cruiser is more attractive to those 40 and older for the most part.

You have a lot of nerve trying to understand things without simply prejudging and dismissing information.

You putz.

[stevent]

Another thing missing in all this discourse is the fact that Harley Davidson builds a damn fine motorcycle. They're comfortable, stylish, reliable as a brick (un-informed leg-humping stereotypes not included) and on the touring end very practicle motorcycles. They may not be what you want in a motorcycle and they definatly attract a certain Walter Mitty demographic, but on the other hand there are plenty of people who use on them for transportation on a daily basis.

I treat them exactly as I've treated my other motorcycles, riding them hard and putting them away wet and they just sit back and beg for more. I'm not the only one as reflected in the number of well over 100k mile Harleys running around. The current downturn for them is a product of bumped up production in the last few years in response to consumer demand, the high interest free- n- easy credit atmosphere of the last few years that affected every manufacturer and the resulting sales drop when the house of cards fell in.  

[Kraz]

This may be true, but it sure is an odd comparison. Owners of Mercedes, Cartier and Armani do not deliberately dress like dirtbags to use their premium products. Do Mercedes dealers devote equal floor space to their cars and branded clothing? I have never been asked by a Mercedes owner "When are you going to buy a REAL car?" I don't think Harley is marketing their product as a luxury brand with "Screw it, let's ride".

Maybe a better comparison would be Escalades, Cristal, and gold chains... items of conspicuous consumption for a class of people who can't generally afford premium-priced products.

I would put a Mercedes in the same class as an Escalade, which is a very nice automobile... I see both blinged out all the time though.  I see lots of HD riders dressed in legit gear or somehow otherwise not looking like a dirtbag daily, as well ass plenty of guys driving fancy cars, wearing expensive watches, yet dress like gang-bangers.  The two really have nothing to do with each other.

The marketing mantra is irrelevant - people pay a premium for HD, just like any other big name product, for various reasons.

I wouldn't put it past HD to do some kind of foreign component into their manufacturing, and either keep a US based "Premium" or "Custom Shop" - just like American guitar mfgrs like Fender or Schecter, etc., or putting more and more foreign components into their US assembled bikes.

I don't think Americans stopped buying American cars when they put plants in Mexico - sure tons of people bitched, but at the end of the day, did nothing about it.

[blueridgerider]

I swore off this group for awhile.  It lasted about two weeks.  Oh well.

Anyway I thought I'd put my two cents in on the topic at hand.

The question was asked:  What's wrong with just continually targeting the over 40 crowd?



I have a round about anecdotal answer.  When I was in my early 20's I was tooling around on a CB750 that was already old and war scarred.  (I ended up getting rid of it with over 120,000 miles of my own added to what was already there when I got it).   Anyway, I used to head over to the Harley shop and drool over the bikes.  They were a "one day" item.

Zoom ahead about ten years and I was buying a new to me bike.  I bought my first and last Harley clone.  It was at the time going to be my last step to a Harley.   I still thought of Harley as the ultimate bike.  I discovered I was in no way shape or form a Cruiser (or big tourer guy).  Nothing against Harley just found the reality was not going to match my dream.  Flash ahead another few years and I'm in my mid 30's and able to afford what I want.  I buy a BMW.  Thing is if I had never discovered that their style of bike was not for me (or had discovered it was for me) I would have bought a Harley - or at least considered it strongly while looking.

It was because it was cool to me when I was in my 20's.  I lived through seeing Harley's very public American Dream turnaround.  I remember the crappy biker movies of the 70's  I had a certain association of cool with Harley when I was younger that translated to wanting one as I got older.

That is why it is important not to target 40+ exclusively.  People don't just wake up when they hit 40 and go out and buy Geritol and begin thinking Harley's are cool.  What is cool when you are 40 often has a lot to do with what was cool to you when you were in your 20's.

The problem is not in targeting your sales to 40+, it is in not targeting your brand lower.  Because the the clients that are 20-30 now are going to be 40 - they need to be interested in Harley well before that.  I don't know if that is happening. Another thing to note is 40 is not the same age (physically)  as it was 10-20 years ago.  People by and large live longer happier lives and do not want to be associated with age.  I've worked in geriatrics and senior services for about 20 years.  They do not even want to be called seniors anymore.  Any product that gets an old label gets ostracized.  I do not think Harley is there, but like any product - not properly marketed and with aging clientele  it will be.

[dm_gsxr]

I can see that. That's how I was as well. Back in the 70's I wanted a Harley. I'd go into the shops before they were boutiques and check out the bikes. They were a little out of my reach. Not a lot but a bit. In the 70's and 80's I compromised and bought Honda and Kawasaki. But I wanted a Low Rider then a Softail. When I had my accident on the Kawasaki, I vowed that my next bike would be a Harley and that I wouldn't compromise. I took 10 years, a divorce and almost lost my house as a result but I was able to finally get a Harley Softail Classic. Even so it wasn't exactly what I wanted so less than a year later I sold it and got a Softail Standard.

So in the 70's in my 20's I wanted a Harley. In 2001 when I was 44 I finally got it. Three years later I got over it, sold it and got a GSXR750

Carl

[chornbe]

At least you speak with some real ass-on experience!

[Zixxerpilot]

This may be where they start to kick themselves for shutting down Buell. They could have put a little more time and effort into the brand, and used it to draw in younger buyers. Hell, I love Buells, but I can't stand the way a Harley rides. That may change as I get older and things get sore faster, but I'm not there yet.

Seriously, most people in the 30 and under group want performance bikes of some kind. Mostly Suersports, but the naked sports (FZ6, aDuc Monster, etc), are showing promise. What does Harley offer that competes? Currently, one bike: The XR1200. It's honestly the only Harley I would consider right now, but it doesn't quite do it for me.

Alternatively, they could have probed into MV for some youth attention as well.

[NestorK]

I'd be interested in finding out sales figures for the metric cruisers. Are they stealing HD market share, or are they suffering the same sales declines too?

[bomber]

The Big 4 sales are down as much, or more than HD's . . . .

[TuffguyF4i]

Why do they need to target young people again? Until the recession hit, they were doing just fine. What's wrong with just continually targeting the over 40 crowd? Young people aren't going to solve HD financial problems because they're just as broke as the rest of us.

Because the next crop of 40 yr olds are going to want something totally different than the current crop of 40 yr olds.

[bomber]

Because the next crop of 40 yr olds are going to want something totally different than the current crop of 40 yr olds.

This hasn't happened in the last couple of generations, wrt HD sales . . . . . ..

doesn't mean it won't, granted.

[greidel]

What happens when all those bikes that HD sold to aging riders come back on the market as used when their owners get too old to ride? Won't there be a glut of HD's in the market in 10-20 years? What if HD is still making the same style/technology/features when that happens? Will prices fall? Will they just sell less numbers? Doesn't it make sense to have a new product in development for when that happens?

[Rabidsnipe]

I guess I tend to think the "aging rider" problem will eventually be shared by all manufacturers rather than exclusively by HD.  Seemingly, there is less interest in motorcycles (as recreation or transportation) among younger generations here in America.  Although I'm sure there are plenty of reasons, I tend to blame the increasingly risk-adverse attitude of society in general.  Couple this with a more financially educated young professional (who just witnessed the worst economic downturn since the great depression) and I think you’ll see a softening of demand for all types of motorcycles over the next 10 years.

[chornbe]

I guess I tend to think the "aging rider" problem will eventually be shared by all manufacturers rather than exclusively by HD.  Seemingly, there is less interest in motorcycles (as recreation or transportation) among younger generations here in America.  Although I'm sure there are plenty of reasons, I tend to blame the increasingly risk-adverse attitude of society in general.  Couple this with a more financially educated young professional (who just witnessed the worst economic downturn since the great depression) and I think you’ll see a softening of demand for all types of motorcycles over the next 10 years.

I'm doing my part. My kids all want to ride. :-)

[bomber]

What happens when all those bikes that HD sold to aging riders come back on the market as used when their owners get too old to ride? Won't there be a glut of HD's in the market in 10-20 years? What if HD is still making the same style/technology/features when that happens? Will prices fall? Will they just sell less numbers? Doesn't it make sense to have a new product in development for when that happens?

Again, this has been happening for at least a couple of generations . . .the only difference I can see between 20 years ago and now is that the population as a whole isn't growing as fast as it was . . . .

But, in answer to your last question, of COURSE it makes sense to have a nex design in the wing for when sales fall -- what makes you think HDI doesn't had new designed in the pipeline? Nothing they've done (if you factor out last October) since they bought themselves from AMC indicates that they lack good or common sense.

[chornbe]

Again, this has been happening for at least a couple of generations . . .the only difference UIU can see between 20 years ago and now is that the population as a whole isn't growing as fast as it was . . . .

But, in answer to your last question, of COURSE it makes sense to have a nex design in the wing for when sales fall -- what makes you think HDI doesn't had new designed in the pipeline? Nothing they've done (if you factor out last October) since they bought themselves from AMC indicates that they lack good or common sense.

I have off-record information I can not share, but I can say HDI's R&D is NOT sitting on its thumbs.

[David Morrow]

The question was asked:  What's wrong with just continually targeting the over 40 crowd?

The problem is that HD buyers are not just the over 40 crowd but more like the 40-60 crowd. That group formed a very large part of the population. That group is now becoming the 45-65 crowd and soon the 50-70 crowd leaving the 40-60 bunch just that much smaller. HD buyers are moving to the right on the Bell curve and HD's sweet spot in the demographic mix is diminishing as a result.

Anyone who is really interested in the phenomenon of shifting demographics should read "Boom, Bust, Echo" about the changing demographics' effects on the economy. It's a topic that companies like HD ignore at their peril.

http://www.footwork.com/book.asp

[Geoff]

The Big 4 sales are down as much, or more than HD's . . . .

The Big 4 wishes they had Harley's over-40 crowd.  Although many have put discretionary spending on hold, this demographic still has more disposable income than younger buyers.

[bomber]

funny, I stopped by the local HD dealership over the weekend (oil filter for the Buell) -- there were a bunch of window shoppers there, and almost all were under 30 -- the new Sportster derivations are drawing ahipster demographic pretty nicely.

This doesn't mean that I don't hink HDI is not doing all they could to capture the riders thay could, but neither are they making knuckleheads and waiting for the customer base to die.

[Geoff]

The problem is that HD buyers are not just the over 40 crowd but more like the 40-60 crowd. That group formed a very large part of the population. That group is now becoming the 45-65 crowd and soon the 50-70 crowd leaving the 40-60 bunch just that much smaller. HD buyers are moving to the right on the Bell curve and HD's sweet spot in the demographic mix is diminishing as a result.

Anyone who is really interested in the phenomenon of shifting demographics should read "Boom, Bust, Echo" about the changing demographics' effects on the economy. It's a topic that companies like HD ignore at their peril.

The demographic is called baby boomers. H-D is not ignoring them. There are currently print and TV ads, hardcopy and push emails, banner ads, MMA sponsorship, co-marketing programs with dealers, demo ride events, and IMS show appearances targeted to the segment.  

In terms of product H-D has expanded its line of FLH touring bikes, and they introduced a trike a couple years ago.  If anything, H-D focuses on the babyboomer demographic to a fault. They need more communications targeted to younger buyers.

[atadaskew]

I have off-record information I can not share, but I can say HDI's R&D is NOT sitting on its thumbs.

Awesome.  I can't wait to get a new Harley Topper.  Make that Yam C3 copy rue the day...

[TRRcheck]

The Big 4 wishes they had Harley's over-40 crowd.  Although many have put discretionary spending on hold, this demographic still has more disposable income than younger buyers.

The thing with the "Big 4", especially Honda, is that they have other areas they can fall back on should there motorcycle sales disappoint (ie cars, atv's etc) whereas HD suffers more for a similar drop in sales..

[Powder Addict]

What happens when all those bikes that HD sold to aging riders come back on the market as used when their owners get too old to ride? Won't there be a glut of HD's in the market in 10-20 years? What if HD is still making the same style/technology/features when that happens? Will prices fall? Will they just sell less numbers? Doesn't it make sense to have a new product in development for when that happens?

They're Harleys, they won't last 5 years, let alone 10-20 years  

[chornbe]

They're Harleys, they won't last 5 years, let alone 10-20 years  

It's like all awesome and shit the way you like thought that up like all by yourself and shit.

[Powder Addict]

It's like all awesome and shit the way you like thought that up like all by yourself and shit.

Shit, no shit eh!

[JGreb]

What happens when all those bikes that HD sold to aging riders come back on the market as used when their owners get too old to ride? Won't there be a glut of HD's in the market in 10-20 years? What if HD is still making the same style/technology/features when that happens? Will prices fall? Will they just sell less numbers? Doesn't it make sense to have a new product in development for when that happens?

I think they will be marketed as classics. Some people just like older bikes.  I am sure 20 years from now Harley will still build their bikes with cutting edge technology while maintaining a traditional form.  

I don't understand why some people want Harley to fail? If Harley did fail, which they won't. The helmetless, leather clad pirate types will just find something else to ride. Unfortunately, much like rap music the outlaw biker image culture is strong and here to stay IMO.

[coho]

Just because HDs primary demographic remembers when Chubby Checker could actually do the twist doesn't mean that that's their only customer pool.

I was a poor 27 year old catering cook when some random events including two different colors of smoke coming from my '81 GL1100 and very creative financing put me in the saddle of a six year old one-owner BMW.  I lived in a nasty warehouse & rat filled neighborhood* eating ramen and peanut butter, but it was worth it to me at the time.  I could have had a less spendy ride, but the BMW turned me from a tourer into a sport-tourer and I liked its little sewing machine hum and the linearity of the inline-triple's power delivery really rang my bells.

I assume there are many bar & shield stories much like my propeller-logo one.  Sometimes you just gotta have it.  






*Since heavily gentrified and no longer nearly as cool.

[Zixxerpilot]

It's like all awesome and shit the way you like thought that up like all by yourself and shit.

Unfortunately, he isn't far off from being right. I've done R&D on those engines, and they do literally eat themselves. The more recent ones are far better, but even the old Evo engines are close to needing a reman at around 50k.

There are a few exceptions, but look at how many of them you see smoking like they're on fire.

[Rabidsnipe]

Unfortunately, he isn't far off from being right. I've done R&D on those engines, and they do literally eat themselves. The more recent ones are far better, but even the old Evo engines are close to needing a reman at around 50k.

There are a few exceptions, but look at how many of them you see smoking like they're on fire.

Wait for it...

[atadaskew]

 I've done R&D on those engines, and they do literally eat themselves. The more recent ones are far better, but even the old Evo engines are close to needing a reman at around 50k.

So, the recent ones are, in your words, far better than the EVOs, which were discontinued 11 years ago.

Good to know.

[county]

Well there is plenty of used Harleys on the market right now....

[atadaskew]

Well there are plenty of used Harleys on the market right now....

Only Harleys?

[chornbe]

Unfortunately, he isn't far off from being right. I've done R&D on those engines, and they do literally eat themselves. The more recent ones are far better, but even the old Evo engines are close to needing a reman at around 50k.

There are a few exceptions, but look at how many of them you see smoking like they're on fire.

the only comments I have are purely anecdotal...

90% of the Harley owners I know with stock engines have had zero problems with reliability and such, and some of them have eye-popping mileage.

90% of the Harley owners I know who've had engine trouble own "built" bikes, not stockers.

[PhilBiker]

the only comments I have are purely anecdotal...

90% of the Harley owners I know with stock engines have had zero problems with reliability and such, and some of them have eye-popping mileage.

90% of the Harley owners I know who've had engine trouble own "built" bikes, not stockers.

Great post.  I'll bet that you'll notice similar numbers for any bikes.  However, it seems that more Harleys are modified than other makes.  It's very fashionable to modify the Harleys, moreso than other brands.

The Evo bikes had big problems with cylinder base gaskets - even with pure stock bikes they failed regularly.  Have they figured that out?

[atadaskew]

The Evo bikes had big problems with cylinder base gaskets - even with pure stock bikes they failed regularly.  Have they figured that out?

Yes.

[bomber]

they fixed the leaky rocker box issue, too.

[chornbe]

Great post.  I'll bet that you'll notice similar numbers for any bikes.  However, it seems that more Harleys are modified than other makes.  It's very fashionable to modify the Harleys, moreso than other brands.

The only people who think Harleys aren't powerful enough for their intended purpose are the ones with small dicks or who can't ride. They're idiotic.

I also think that about the people who think bikes like the FJR, C14, Busa and all the other "hyper" and big-bore sport-oriented bikes aren't fast enough.

Some quality time spent with a riding instructor would do wonders for these people.

My sportster put out, what? 22 horses on a good day, and lots of people enjoyed chasing me around the twisty stuff on that. I didn't get too many complaints about the pace I kept.

Riding > Power

[chornbe]

they fixed the leaky rocker box issue, too.

And in fairness, the weeping primary was actually designed that way.

[Powder Addict]

The only people who think Harleys aren't powerful enough for their intended purpose are the ones with small dicks or who can't ride. They're idiotic.

What’s your opinion of people who constantly brag on the internet about what great riders they are?

[chornbe]

What’s your opinion of people who constantly brag on the internet about what great riders they are?

I'm a well trained rider who takes it pretty seriously. Yeah, I'm a good rider.

Meanwhile, anyone thinking these modern bikes like the big STs and the bigger-bore nakeds and such aren't powerful enough are putzes. I stand by that. Rev the thing up, learn where it makes its best power, learn how to lean and how to brake... on the street, quality riding and good knowledge of the machine you're on goes WAY further than simply having the fastest machine.

[Powder Addict]

I'm a well trained rider who takes it pretty seriously. Yeah, I'm a good rider.

Meanwhile, anyone thinking these modern bikes like the big STs and the bigger-bore nakeds and such aren't powerful enough are putzes. I stand by that. Rev the thing up, learn where it makes its best power, learn how to lean and how to brake... on the street, quality riding and good knowledge of the machine you're on goes WAY further than simply having the fastest machine.

You didn't answer my question.

[gradus]

The only people who think Harleys aren't powerful enough for their intended purpose are the ones with small dicks or who can't ride. They're idiotic.

I also think that about the people who think bikes like the FJR, C14, Busa and all the other "hyper" and big-bore sport-oriented bikes aren't fast enough.

Some quality time spent with a riding instructor would do wonders for these people.

My sportster put out, what? 22 horses on a good day, and lots of people enjoyed chasing me around the twisty stuff on that. I didn't get too many complaints about the pace I kept.

Riding > Power

Doesn't the Sportster have closer to 50hp?  At 22hp you have to set up your passes on other cars and hang in the other lane too long.  It's easy to think that they aren't powerful enough.  Closest comparison I have to 22 horses was about 3 weeks ago on an '86 KLR 600 with street tires.  (ride down hwy 28 from Deals Gap to Franklin)  Fun to ride, good handling and a decent pace, but still under powered for passing.  This bike also had virtually no brakes and the front forks dive under any braking, but the who package made for a fun ride.  When I was taking it somewhat easy on the VFR, my buddy was having to squeeze everything the klr had to sometimes keep me in sight.  This guy is a very good rider but his bike was under powered.  

Put him on his '89 Honda Hawk and 56hp is close enough.  That's probably a bike that you'd love if you've never been on one.              

[crashtech]

You didn't answer my question.

no he did not....

[Rabidsnipe]

Wait for it...

Took longer than I thought.

[dm_gsxr]

I'm a 10%'r or maybe a 2%'r

My stock Harley Softail had to be in the shop almost exactly every 10,000 miles of the 40,000 miles I had it. One was a mistake at the factory where they assembled the drive train with the wrong spacer. It tore the drive train up enough that they thought they might have to replace the shaft (they didn't). It took 6 weeks for that one to be fixed and returned. Others were a faulty fuel pump that had to go in the shop twice. The other was a leaking front cylinder head so relatively minor but still had to spend a few days in the shop.

Carl

[PhilBiker]

no he did not....

Maybe he's Meeting someone for a ride  .

[chornbe]

Doesn't the Sportster have closer to 50hp?  At 22hp you have to set up your passes on other cars and hang in the other lane too long.  It's easy to think that they aren't powerful enough.  Closest comparison I have to 22 horses was about 3 weeks ago on an '86 KLR 600 with street tires.  (ride down hwy 28 from Deals Gap to Franklin)  Fun to ride, good handling and a decent pace, but still under powered for passing.  This bike also had virtually no brakes and the front forks dive under any braking, but the who package made for a fun ride.  When I was taking it somewhat easy on the VFR, my buddy was having to squeeze everything the klr had to sometimes keep me in sight.  This guy is a very good rider but his bike was under powered.  

Put him on his '89 Honda Hawk and 56hp is close enough.  That's probably a bike that you'd love if you've never been on one.              

It was, uhm, like... a joke. Ya know... all the people ragging on under powered bikes, and all...?

God, I just love ST.N.  

[Powder Addict]

They're Harleys, they won't last 5 years, let alone 10-20 years  

It's like all awesome and shit the way you like thought that up like all by yourself and shit.

It was, uhm, like... a joke. Ya know... all the people ragging on under powered bikes, and all...?

God, I just love ST.N.  

Oh,

The irony

[chornbe]

wow, string together three things that have no common context and try to make a funny.

Methinks your favorite powder is, in fact, not real snow...  

[STJoe]

Lighten up guys.  Us old guys aren't getting any younger.