I suppose now I'm just focused on reducing my gear to the bare essentials that will keep me safe and as comfortable as possible. I'm taking a long trip in about a month, where I'll be leaving temps way over 90 [and maybe still over 100 degrees F] and I'll hit temps down near freezing, plus the chance of rain on the trip — that's a lot of gear to take.
I hear you and I often go through this ritual of trying to predict weather then matching my riding gear needs to wherever I'm going. This is where heated jacket liners come in. This allows me to bring a lighter than normal jacket, then put the heated liner inside (to replace the standard liner). This setup is good for me in riding temperatures down to about 45 degrees or so. I do have to bring either the leather pants or textile pants--no mesh pants. Unfortunately, anything below 45 and the winter jacket is a must. I can ride through to 20 degrees with just a leather jacket and heated liner but only for short periods before my other extremities get too painfully cold.