Hard year but the Motor Company is on the rebound.

[rajflyboy]

https://www.roadracingworld.com/news/harley-davidson-plans-comeback-from-92-million-q2-loss/

They should make some type of badass scooter or 125.   I like the e bicycle idea if they can pull it off correctly.    They should collaborate with Honda on a motor for their adventure tourer.   Gone are the bagger days.   People like the adventure “meals on wheels” motorcycles now a days.  

[Sport-Touring]

[Blue is Best]

HD has the brains and engineering to make whatever they want. If only they would get out of their box.

[rajflyboy]

HD has the brains and engineering to make whatever they want. If only they would get out of their box.

They like pirate ships and they are sticking to it.  

[kver]

HD has the brains and engineering to make whatever they want. If only they would get out of their box.

Yeah -- but HD has a branding problem --- they get premium prices for selling traditional HDs and lose that when they sell things outside that niche.   Their attempts to expand offerings and market power cruisers, UJMs, and even sportbikes (Buell) always end badly -- and it's not the engineering that's the problem -- its the branding...  

Maye they could do something like sell a side-by-side or watersports vehicle??  market that to the same people buying their bikes and t-shirts, boots, jackets, etc....   and then expand out from there?   -- I don't see them converting many motorcyclists who already have decided on what types of bikes, and riding they're into.  

[rajflyboy]

Oh lord

Harley Davidson has a branding problem    

[Baz]

The number one problem Harley has is that its customer base is long in the tooth. Their next rides will probably be a mall scooter.

I remember meeting to 30 something guys in Banff who were equipped with the latest Harley rides & the full HD rain gear etc. It turns out they were avid riders from Germany who informed me the only reason they were riding Harley's was they were the only bike available to rent in Calgary. When I asked their opinion of the cruiser world, their only reply was "we don't get why anyone would make a motorcycle so big, slow & heavy.

For the last while, Harley has been buying back shares like crazy, which seems to have kept share prices up for no other reason.

https://www.thethings.com/reasons-harley-davidson-is-in-serious-trouble-in-2020/

[rajflyboy]

The number one problem Harley has is that its customer base is long in the tooth. Their next rides will probably be a mall scooter.

I remember meeting to 30 something guys in Banff who were equipped with the latest Harley rides & the full HD rain gear etc. It turns out they were avid riders from Germany who informed me the only reason they were riding Harley's was they were the only bike available to rent in Calgary. When I asked their opinion of the cruiser world, their only reply was "we don't get why anyone would make a motorcycle so big, slow & heavy.

For the last while, Harley has been buying back shares like crazy, which seems to have kept share prices up for no other reason.

https://www.thethings.com/reasons-harley-davidson-is-in-serious-trouble-in-2020/

This is what I think  

[Blue is Best]

Yep. What HD needs is for a couple BIG investors to take them around to the back of the wood shed and politely make them an offer they can't refuse. The offer would include a marketing company that would sell them in a different light.

[Bounce]

Can we start with the V-Rod motor in a S-T chassis?

[Blue is Best]

Can we start with the V-Rod motor in a S-T chassis?

Yes! See? You are the type of marketing team they need.

[rajflyboy]

https://www.cycleworld.com/harley-davidson-xg-750r-flat-track-racer-motorcycle-review-exclusive-first-look/

I’d like a street version of this but that was already tried 10 or so years ago and I guess it did not sell many units.  

[Blue is Best]

Give it an honest 100 HP at the rubber and about 500 lbs with all the street stuff and I could be in!

[Biking Sailor]

Give it an honest 100 HP at the rubber and about 500 lbs with all the street stuff and I could be in!

Indian FTR.

[Blue is Best]

Indian FTR.

I actually considered that for my day motorcycle. Then I saw the 3.4 gallon gas tank and asked myself- self if I can't go 150 miles, why?

[larry1096]

I wonder if they'd do well to 'split' the brand (sort of like what they tried with Buell) and have the new division focus on 'modern' motorcycles, and not be tied to V-Twins. "Harley Sport" could sell bikes "Harley" riders wouldn't want, without diluting the Harley brand.

Toyota/Lexus, only Pirate/Normal.


Larry

[rajflyboy]

I wonder if they'd do well to 'split' the brand (sort of like what they tried with Buell) and have the new division focus on 'modern' motorcycles, and not be tied to V-Twins. "Harley Sport" could sell bikes "Harley" riders wouldn't want, without diluting the Harley brand.

Toyota/Lexus, only Pirate/Normal.


Larry

Good thought  

[Blue is Best]

I wonder if they'd do well to 'split' the brand (sort of like what they tried with Buell) and have the new division focus on 'modern' motorcycles, and not be tied to V-Twins. "Harley Sport" could sell bikes "Harley" riders wouldn't want, without diluting the Harley brand.

Toyota/Lexus, only Pirate/Normal.


Larry

Go apply for HD marketing department, they need to hire you.                        

[Prubert]

Yea, that is not the type of marketing they want to do....

Most of the riders were purged last month....

[Biking Sailor]

I actually considered that for my day motorcycle. Then I saw the 3.4 gallon gas tank and asked myself- self if I can't go 150 miles, why?

I also had issues with the tank size. My Griso only as a 4.3, and that is too small for me to be happy about. I was spoiled by the Stelvio's 8.5 tank I had. The 6.6 on the FJR is pretty good, but the 5.3 on my R1200GS is only adequate.

For traveling, big tanks are a necessity when in flyover country.

[rajflyboy]

I have a 2 hour ass.  That’s it and I’m stopping somewhere.  

[Blue is Best]

I have a 2 hour ass.  That’s it and I’m stopping somewhere.  

At eighty MPH that is 160 miles!!!!

[rajflyboy]

At eighty MPH that is 160 miles!!!!

Good point.  

[FJRider]

I see HD as a take over target.  The buyer which would make the most sense is Triumph. Doing so Triumph would gain thousands of dealerships and a parts supply operation. Their products, mostly, don't compete in the same market space and Triumph's, mostly, aren't despised by existing Harley customers.

[NinjaLady]

I see HD as a take over target.  

I think Polaris makes more sense than Triumph but who knows.

[Baz]

I see HD as a take over target.  The buyer which would make the most sense is Triumph. Doing so Triumph would gain thousands of dealerships and a parts supply operation. Their products, mostly, don't compete in the same market space and Triumph's, mostly, aren't despised by existing Harley customers.

Working for a Danish company that swallows up companies at a very large & brisk pace. Normally when buying distribution we pay 5x the price of inventory that the company holds. In the case where a company also has manufacturing, that may vary to the down side. (Most companies avoid manufacturing at all costs & would prefer to outsource.)

So as of today Triumph has a value of 2.266 billion dollars using this formula.

HOG has a value of 1,119,364.00 (That 1st number is a trillion).

(This is their SEDA value of assets of each company before using the 5X multiplier)

Doubtful that Triumph could raise that amount of financing. In fact, the person that may come to mind with that sort of cash would be Berkshire Hathaway, and I am pretty sure he would not want HD due to their long term outlook. He might buy HD at fire sale prices but really that company does not fit his profile.

Given the state of the toy industry these days (Covid-19 killed it) and probably the next few years will be very lean as I am pretty sure the loss of jobs, will not bide well for future sales. (I live in a boom bust province when the boom goes bust, their is a gigantic toy sale) We have been there for a couple of years now.

My take on the motorcycle industry is, I would bet money that in the next few years there will be fewer companies to buy a motorcycle from.  Triumph could very well be one of these.

Last quarter Triumph lost 0.19 cents a share.
Last Quarter HOG lost 0.35 cents a share.

[Blue is Best]

Good analysis