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Topic: Hard year but the Motor Company is on the rebound.  (Read 1903 times)

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rajflyboy
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« on: July 29, 2020, 03:40:28 pm »

https://www.roadracingworld.com/news/harley-davidson-plans-comeback-from-92-million-q2-loss/

They should make some type of badass scooter or 125.   I like the e bicycle idea if they can pull it off correctly.    They should collaborate with Honda on a motor for their adventure tourer.   Gone are the bagger days.   People like the adventure “meals on wheels” motorcycles now a days.  
« Last Edit: July 29, 2020, 03:45:12 pm by rajflyboy » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2020, 02:02:34 pm »

HD has the brains and engineering to make whatever they want. If only they would get out of their box.
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2020, 02:06:01 pm »


HD has the brains and engineering to make whatever they want. If only they would get out of their box.


They like pirate ships and they are sticking to it.  
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« Reply #3 on: July 30, 2020, 03:25:34 pm »


HD has the brains and engineering to make whatever they want. If only they would get out of their box.

Yeah -- but HD has a branding problem --- they get premium prices for selling traditional HDs and lose that when they sell things outside that niche.   Their attempts to expand offerings and market power cruisers, UJMs, and even sportbikes (Buell) always end badly -- and it's not the engineering that's the problem -- its the branding...  

Maye they could do something like sell a side-by-side or watersports vehicle??  market that to the same people buying their bikes and t-shirts, boots, jackets, etc....   and then expand out from there?   -- I don't see them converting many motorcyclists who already have decided on what types of bikes, and riding they're into.  
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« Reply #4 on: July 30, 2020, 07:43:11 pm »

Oh lord

Harley Davidson has a branding problem  Lol  Lol Lol Lol Lol Lol Lol Lol Lol

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« Reply #5 on: August 08, 2020, 02:07:10 pm »

The number one problem Harley has is that its customer base is long in the tooth. Their next rides will probably be a mall scooter.

I remember meeting to 30 something guys in Banff who were equipped with the latest Harley rides & the full HD rain gear etc. It turns out they were avid riders from Germany who informed me the only reason they were riding Harley's was they were the only bike available to rent in Calgary. When I asked their opinion of the cruiser world, their only reply was "we don't get why anyone would make a motorcycle so big, slow & heavy.

For the last while, Harley has been buying back shares like crazy, which seems to have kept share prices up for no other reason.

https://www.thethings.com/reasons-harley-davidson-is-in-serious-trouble-in-2020/

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« Reply #6 on: August 08, 2020, 05:39:02 pm »


The number one problem Harley has is that its customer base is long in the tooth. Their next rides will probably be a mall scooter.

I remember meeting to 30 something guys in Banff who were equipped with the latest Harley rides & the full HD rain gear etc. It turns out they were avid riders from Germany who informed me the only reason they were riding Harley's was they were the only bike available to rent in Calgary. When I asked their opinion of the cruiser world, their only reply was "we don't get why anyone would make a motorcycle so big, slow & heavy.

For the last while, Harley has been buying back shares like crazy, which seems to have kept share prices up for no other reason.

https://www.thethings.com/reasons-harley-davidson-is-in-serious-trouble-in-2020/




This is what I think  Bigok
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« Reply #7 on: August 09, 2020, 07:22:37 am »

Yep. What HD needs is for a couple BIG investors to take them around to the back of the wood shed and politely make them an offer they can't refuse. The offer would include a marketing company that would sell them in a different light.
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« Reply #8 on: August 09, 2020, 08:48:09 am »

Can we start with the V-Rod motor in a S-T chassis?
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« Reply #9 on: August 09, 2020, 11:17:11 am »


Can we start with the V-Rod motor in a S-T chassis?


Yes! See? You are the type of marketing team they need.
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« Reply #10 on: August 25, 2020, 07:57:52 pm »

https://www.cycleworld.com/harley-davidson-xg-750r-flat-track-racer-motorcycle-review-exclusive-first-look/

I’d like a street version of this but that was already tried 10 or so years ago and I guess it did not sell many units.  
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« Reply #11 on: August 25, 2020, 09:25:46 pm »

Give it an honest 100 HP at the rubber and about 500 lbs with all the street stuff and I could be in!
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2020, 04:03:14 pm »


Give it an honest 100 HP at the rubber and about 500 lbs with all the street stuff and I could be in!


Indian FTR.
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2020, 04:47:45 pm »




Indian FTR.


I actually considered that for my day motorcycle. Then I saw the 3.4 gallon gas tank and asked myself- self if I can't go 150 miles, why?
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2020, 10:00:07 pm »

I wonder if they'd do well to 'split' the brand (sort of like what they tried with Buell) and have the new division focus on 'modern' motorcycles, and not be tied to V-Twins. "Harley Sport" could sell bikes "Harley" riders wouldn't want, without diluting the Harley brand.

Toyota/Lexus, only Pirate/Normal. Smile


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« Reply #15 on: August 27, 2020, 06:06:49 am »


I wonder if they'd do well to 'split' the brand (sort of like what they tried with Buell) and have the new division focus on 'modern' motorcycles, and not be tied to V-Twins. "Harley Sport" could sell bikes "Harley" riders wouldn't want, without diluting the Harley brand.

Toyota/Lexus, only Pirate/Normal. Smile


Larry


Good thought  Bigok
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« Reply #16 on: August 27, 2020, 08:34:52 am »


I wonder if they'd do well to 'split' the brand (sort of like what they tried with Buell) and have the new division focus on 'modern' motorcycles, and not be tied to V-Twins. "Harley Sport" could sell bikes "Harley" riders wouldn't want, without diluting the Harley brand.

Toyota/Lexus, only Pirate/Normal. Smile


Larry


Go apply for HD marketing department, they need to hire you.                        Bigok
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« Reply #17 on: August 27, 2020, 10:28:23 pm »

Yea, that is not the type of marketing they want to do....

Most of the riders were purged last month....

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« Reply #18 on: August 28, 2020, 01:36:22 pm »




I actually considered that for my day motorcycle. Then I saw the 3.4 gallon gas tank and asked myself- self if I can't go 150 miles, why?


I also had issues with the tank size. My Griso only as a 4.3, and that is too small for me to be happy about. I was spoiled by the Stelvio's 8.5 tank I had. The 6.6 on the FJR is pretty good, but the 5.3 on my R1200GS is only adequate.

For traveling, big tanks are a necessity when in flyover country.
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« Reply #19 on: August 28, 2020, 04:21:17 pm »

I have a 2 hour ass.  That’s it and I’m stopping somewhere.   Lol Bigsmile
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« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2020, 05:56:53 pm »


I have a 2 hour ass.  That’s it and I’m stopping somewhere.   Lol Bigsmile


At eighty MPH that is 160 miles!!!!
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« Reply #21 on: August 28, 2020, 08:36:05 pm »




At eighty MPH that is 160 miles!!!!


Good point.  Bigsmile
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« Reply #22 on: September 07, 2020, 07:30:06 am »

I see HD as a take over target.  The buyer which would make the most sense is Triumph. Doing so Triumph would gain thousands of dealerships and a parts supply operation. Their products, mostly, don't compete in the same market space and Triumph's, mostly, aren't despised by existing Harley customers.
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« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2020, 12:54:16 pm »


I see HD as a take over target.  



I think Polaris makes more sense than Triumph but who knows.
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« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2020, 02:06:15 pm »


I see HD as a take over target.  The buyer which would make the most sense is Triumph. Doing so Triumph would gain thousands of dealerships and a parts supply operation. Their products, mostly, don't compete in the same market space and Triumph's, mostly, aren't despised by existing Harley customers.


Working for a Danish company that swallows up companies at a very large & brisk pace. Normally when buying distribution we pay 5x the price of inventory that the company holds. In the case where a company also has manufacturing, that may vary to the down side. (Most companies avoid manufacturing at all costs & would prefer to outsource.)

So as of today Triumph has a value of 2.266 billion dollars using this formula.

HOG has a value of 1,119,364.00 (That 1st number is a trillion).

(This is their SEDA value of assets of each company before using the 5X multiplier)

Doubtful that Triumph could raise that amount of financing. In fact, the person that may come to mind with that sort of cash would be Berkshire Hathaway, and I am pretty sure he would not want HD due to their long term outlook. He might buy HD at fire sale prices but really that company does not fit his profile.

Given the state of the toy industry these days (Covid-19 killed it) and probably the next few years will be very lean as I am pretty sure the loss of jobs, will not bide well for future sales. (I live in a boom bust province when the boom goes bust, their is a gigantic toy sale) We have been there for a couple of years now.

My take on the motorcycle industry is, I would bet money that in the next few years there will be fewer companies to buy a motorcycle from.  Triumph could very well be one of these.

Last quarter Triumph lost 0.19 cents a share.
Last Quarter HOG lost 0.35 cents a share.
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« Reply #25 on: September 08, 2020, 08:57:24 am »

Good analysis
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