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Topic: Hard year but the Motor Company is on the rebound.  (Read 1902 times)

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« Reply #20 on: August 28, 2020, 05:56:53 pm »


I have a 2 hour ass.  Thatís it and Iím stopping somewhere.   Lol Bigsmile


At eighty MPH that is 160 miles!!!!
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« Reply #21 on: August 28, 2020, 08:36:05 pm »




At eighty MPH that is 160 miles!!!!


Good point.  Bigsmile
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« Reply #22 on: September 07, 2020, 07:30:06 am »

I see HD as a take over target.  The buyer which would make the most sense is Triumph. Doing so Triumph would gain thousands of dealerships and a parts supply operation. Their products, mostly, don't compete in the same market space and Triumph's, mostly, aren't despised by existing Harley customers.
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« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2020, 12:54:16 pm »


I see HD as a take over target.  



I think Polaris makes more sense than Triumph but who knows.
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« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2020, 02:06:15 pm »


I see HD as a take over target.  The buyer which would make the most sense is Triumph. Doing so Triumph would gain thousands of dealerships and a parts supply operation. Their products, mostly, don't compete in the same market space and Triumph's, mostly, aren't despised by existing Harley customers.


Working for a Danish company that swallows up companies at a very large & brisk pace. Normally when buying distribution we pay 5x the price of inventory that the company holds. In the case where a company also has manufacturing, that may vary to the down side. (Most companies avoid manufacturing at all costs & would prefer to outsource.)

So as of today Triumph has a value of 2.266 billion dollars using this formula.

HOG has a value of 1,119,364.00 (That 1st number is a trillion).

(This is their SEDA value of assets of each company before using the 5X multiplier)

Doubtful that Triumph could raise that amount of financing. In fact, the person that may come to mind with that sort of cash would be Berkshire Hathaway, and I am pretty sure he would not want HD due to their long term outlook. He might buy HD at fire sale prices but really that company does not fit his profile.

Given the state of the toy industry these days (Covid-19 killed it) and probably the next few years will be very lean as I am pretty sure the loss of jobs, will not bide well for future sales. (I live in a boom bust province when the boom goes bust, their is a gigantic toy sale) We have been there for a couple of years now.

My take on the motorcycle industry is, I would bet money that in the next few years there will be fewer companies to buy a motorcycle from.  Triumph could very well be one of these.

Last quarter Triumph lost 0.19 cents a share.
Last Quarter HOG lost 0.35 cents a share.
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« Reply #25 on: September 08, 2020, 08:57:24 am »

Good analysis
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Past bikes: Dirt- '74 MX360, SC500 x 2, '77 YZ400, '78 YZ400, '83 CR250, '85 CR250, '86 CR250   
 Street- '74 S3400, H1500, '72 H2750 x 2, '78 GS1000C, GS1000EC x 2, '80 GS1000S, '00 1200 Bandit, '05 FJR1300, '07 ZX14, '16 1250 Bandit
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